长江经济带供应链韧性水平测度、时空分异及障碍因子
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安徽理工大学经济与管理学院

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国家自然科学基金项目“基于采选充一体化的煤矿生产物流系统优化理论及建模研究”(项目编号:51874003);教育部人文社会科学基金项目“组织学习视角下数字经济产业协同创新超网络构建、演化及效应研究”(项目编号:24YJC630194);安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目“长三角一体化视域下安徽省收缩型城市识别及其协同治理路径研究”(项目编号:AHSKYY2025D41)。


Measurement of Supply Chain Resilience Level, Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Obstacle Factors in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
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1School of Economics and Management,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan 232000,China

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    摘要:

    提升供应链韧性是我国实现高质量发展、建设现代化产业体系的重要战略选择。基于2014~2023年长江经济带11个省市面板数据,从供给侧、连通侧、需求侧、保障侧构建供应链韧性评价指标体系,运用熵值法、Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计、马尔可夫链及障碍因子模型,系统分析其测度、时空分异并识别障碍因子。结果表明:长江经济带供应链韧性水平在研究期内整体稳步提升,空间上呈现不均衡分布特征;区域内差异呈现“东部>中部>西部”的特征,区域间差异是总体差异的核心来源;供应链韧性水平差异经历“先收敛、后分化”过程,东中西部演进特征存在异质性;各省市供应链韧性水平具有较强稳定性,高水平邻域存在正向空间溢出效应;快递业务量、货物周转量、电力消费量、企业数、能源消费总量是影响长江经济带供应链韧性水平提升的主要障碍因子,各省市还存在个性化障碍。研究结果为长江经济带供应链韧性的协同提升与差异化发展提供实证依据和决策参考。

    Abstract:

    Enhancing supply chain resilience is an important strategic choice for China to achieve high-quality development and build a modern industrial system. Based on panel data of 11 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2014 to 2023, this paper constructs an evaluation index system for supply chain resilience from the dimensions of supply side, connectivity side, demand side, and support side. By employing the entropy method, Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation, Markov chain, and obstacle factor model, it systematically analyzes the level measurement and spatiotemporal differentiation of supply chain resilience and identifies its obstacle factors. The results show that the overall level of supply chain resilience in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has steadily improved during the study period, with an uneven spatial distribution; intra-regional disparities present the feature of "eastern region > central region > western region", and inter-regional disparities are the core source of overall disparities; disparities in supply chain resilience level have undergone a process of "convergence first and divergence later", with heterogeneous evolutionary characteristics across the eastern, central and western regions; the level of supply chain resilience in each province and municipality is highly stable, and neighboring regions with high resilience levels exert a positive spatial spillover effect; express delivery volume, freight turnover, electricity consumption, number of enterprises and total energy consumption are the major obstacle factors restricting the improvement of supply chain resilience in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and each province and municipality also faces region-specific obstacles. The findings provide empirical evidence and decision-making references for the coordinated improvement and differentiated development of supply chain resilience in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

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王向前,赵文慧,金华一.长江经济带供应链韧性水平测度、时空分异及障碍因子[J].西昌学院学报(社会科学版),2026,38(4):78-90.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-03-30
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-29
  • 录用日期:2026-04-30
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-21